By The Way....

One of the great things about being a blogger is that I can write whenever I want, and whatever I want. I have no bosses. I have no advertiser that I need to placate. Best of all, I have no deadlines! Once upon a time, I had a deadline every half hour. Not fun.

I haven't written for a while because... I had nothing new I wanted to say and my old posts still held up.

But time marches and the interminable political season meander on, and we find the candidates playing their version of "Gotcha", a game more appropriate to a junior high school class election. On the other hand, who is really listening to what they have to say? The election really is a case of impressions.

So let's go to the polls!

Hillary is in the process of manufacturing square bricks. The impression she wanted the primary electorate to have, that her campaign is a fore-ordained reality, an unstoppable juggernaut, "La Machine", has dissolved as Obama and Edwards are all in a statistical tie in Iowa. In light of the polls results, Hillary has "elevated them guns a little lower" and declared that she doesn't expect a blow out in order to make the best of the fact that she is not going to blast the opposition. It's called making lemonade from lemons. But no politician wants to be in a real race and you had better believe that her campaign cultivated the juggernaut image in order to drive out opposition and thereby preserve resources for a general election. However, reality has caught up with her carefully crafted image and people realize that she is as real as a three dollar bill.

My friend, the Votemaster lines up almost all the latest polls and together with this site we can see the trends. Whether you look at the last three polls, or whether you follow one pollster over time, Hillary is in a statistical dead heat, with roughly 25% of those polled in her corner. Obama and Edwards are drawing the same approximate level of support. On the other hand, I propose that you look at the poll results this way: Only 25% of those polled like Hillary, and 75% of those surveyed prefer someone else!

Next up in the primary schedule is New Hampshire, where some polls are showing Obama with as much as 31% of the primary vote. On the other hand, some polls show Hillary with the same level of support. Regardless, what once was a solid base for Hillary in New Hampshire has now turned very soft indeed. Edwards trails badly there.

In South Carolina, Hillary and Obama are neck-and-neck at around 40% according to one poll. Then again, another recent poll by CNN has Hillary ahead 42% to 34% over Obama.

It is clear that Hillary is vulnerable in Iowa, and the winner there will have tremendous momentum, especially in the form of media coverage, going into the New Hampshire primary. After all, everyone wants to back a winner and jump onto a bandwagon.

The big question is John Edwards. Edwards has spent years in Iowa building up an organization and making local contacts. If he fails to win there his candidacy is dead. If he manages a win, can he he seen as he person who can unite that 75% of the party who do not want Hillary? Well, the Obama candidacy is so unusual,and, yes, race matters, that the Illinois senator's supporters may very well be locked in. But there may be around 15%-20% of primary voters who will give up their backing of second tier candidates such as Richardson, Biden and Dodd (Kucinich voters are so left wing that they wont budge), and find in Edwards the person to eventually defeat both Hillary and Obama, and then go on to win a general election. I'm guessing that that is the hope of the Edwards campaign.

The Republicans pose an entirely different set of problems and more about them later. But before everyone gets too excited about Huckabee, let me leave you with this theological question: Are we about to see the Resurrection of John McCain?